During the last three months, Florida Marlins starting pitcher Josh Johnson has dominated the National League over pitchers like Tim Lincecum, Roy Halladay, or Ubaldo Jimenez. The baseball odds and oddmakers at YouWager.com have been all about Johnson and tonight’s Matt Cain and the Giants have the Marlins at around even money.
Since July 4th, the Marlins have climbed back over .500 by going 13-6. Many YouWager.com baseball fans have credited this success to Johnson’s ongoing strong performance, who is 3-0 in his starts during the surge.
Johnson (10-3, 1.61 ERA) has not allowed more than two runs in his last 13 starts, going 7-2 with a 0.79 ERA. The last pitcher to put together such a streak for 14 outings in a row was Houston’s Mike Scott in 1986.
Oddsmakers at YouWager.com have also taken into account the fact that Johnson has allowed one run over his last 28 innings on the road. However, what many feel is the biggest sign of his utter command as a MLB pitcher is in his strikeouts and WHIP numbers. Johnson’s numbers during that stretch indicate that he has struck out 94 hitters in 91-1/3 innings with a WHIP of 0.876. He has also enjoyed 18 straight “quality starts”.
Granted, Johnson has never beaten the San Francisco Giants, but he has never had the chance to face them when he’s been pitching this well. As the MLB ERA leader, the right-hander is also looking to to earn his first victory over the Giants when the Marlins continue a four-game series tonight at AT&T Park.
He is 0-3 with a 3.00 ERA in four career starts against the Giants (56-44), although the Marlins (50-49) supported him with a total of five runs in those outings.
YouWager.com sportsbook are really having a tough time putting a price on Johnson since most pitchers on a run like his would command prices in the -200 or higher range. However, tonight he is listed at just -120, thanks in part to San Francisco’s recent success as well as Matt Cain’s prowess.
The Giants had a four-game win streak snapped with a 4-3 loss Monday. San Francisco fell 3 1/2 games behind first-place San Diego in the NL West. Overall, they have gone 15-4 since July 5th, slightly better than Florida.
This will be the first baseball game for Johnson to size up Giants rookie Buster Posey, who is batting .461 during a 19-game hitting streak. Posey – whose 39 hits this month lead the majors – is three games shy of matching Hall of Famer Willie McCovey’s San Francisco rookie record set in 1959.
Cain has won his last two starts, after being dropped by the Giants his prior five appearances. However, baseball bettors know that he has had a good rhythm against Florida, going 3-0 with a 2.83 ERA in six starts.
Johnson’s dominance is the main reason for a powerful StatFox Super Situation that is pointing towards being ready to fall finally on Tuesday:
• Play Against – Road favorites with a money line of -110 or higher (FLORIDA) – with an on base percentage of .300 or worse over their last 15 games, with a hot starting pitcher- ERA less than 2.50 over his last 5 starts. (36-17 over the last 5 seasons.) (67.9%, +25.6 units. Rating = 3*)
The Florida Marlins have been consistently in winning, but it has been possible with more than just pitching. This is the chance for Johnson to prove its fans and YouWager.com bettors that he is the difference, based primarily on the price and the value which comes with a pitcher of his command:
• JOHNSON is 17-7 (+10.6 Units) against the money line when the money line is +125 to -125 over the last 2 seasons. (Team’s Record) The average score was JOHNSON 5.3, OPPONENT 3.2 – (Rating = 1*)
First pitch for this highly intriguing MLB matchup is set for 10:15 PM ET, or 7:15 PM on the left coast. The total is posted at a paltry 6.5. Even still, the StatFox Game Estimator shows a 3.3-2.9 projected win by the Giants, low enough to still take the game UNDER.
