As the Missouri Valley Conference tournament begins tonight, three teams seem to be at the top of the list in the 20th bout of “Arch Madness” in St. Louis. These teams are Northern Iowa, Wichita State, and Illinois State. For all of the latest info and action, go to the GAME MATCHUPS pages at YouWager.com.
Here’s a little rundown on the action at the MVC.
The Hottest Teams
At 25-4, Northern Iowa is the champion of the regular season and they’ve been one of the most popular bets on the college boards at 18-10 against the spread. The Northern Iowa Panthers have been climbing the lower regions of the Top 25 ever since January and look to be on a course for the Big Dance. As the defending tournament champion, Northern Iowa is looking to win their third title since 2004.
At 23-8, and 11-13 against the spread, second-seeded Wichita State does not have a history of doing well in this tournament. But with their 21-28 record, the Shockers look as good –or maybe even better- than Northern Iowa. With their
scoring margin (+8.7), their rebounding margin (+4.8), their assists (14.6) and steals (7.2), the Shockers have the best stats in the MVC. However, one concern for sports bettors, says YouWager.com, is Wichita State’s 1-6 against the spread mark since February 3rd. They are 6-8 straight up and 5-8 against the spread when playing away from home.
At 21-9, and 12-14-1 against the spread, Illinois State has the third best record all-time at 34-24 in this tournament. They’ve made it to the championship match three times in a row. Illinois State Redbirds have won six of their last seven contests, with a loss to Northern Iowa in last game. To get back to the championship, the Redbirds will need to play exceptional defense and get a lot of help from center Dinma Odiakosa and guard Osiris Eldridge.
Long Shots
At 16-14, and 12-15 against the spread, fourth seeded Creighton has won this event a record 10 times, but they don’t seem to have that kind of magic this year
with their 3-12 straight up record on the road. The Creighton Blue Jays will take on Bradley, with a record of 15-14, and 13-15 against the spread, in a quarterfinal game that some bettors see as already decided. The Bradley Braves are in a double revenge mode with 9-5 straight up and against the spread with three or more days off.
Drake, Southern Illinois, Evansville, and Missouri State, with 19-11 and 14-15-1 against the spread will all play the first day in St. Louis. Out of all these teams, the Missouri State Bears seem to have the best chance of getting to the semifinals and going beyond that. The Bears have reached the finals four times since 2001, and they have finished second each time. Missouri State is the top scoring team in the league with 71.9 points per game and they convert on 36.9 percent of three-point shots.
The Rankings
The MVC has witnessed some important trends that build with each round. Historically, in the Opening Round contests, UNDERDOGS are 11-11 straight up and moneymakers 14-8 against the spread (63.6%) since 1998. In the Quarterfinals, FAVORITES turn the tables, 14-6 against the spread (70%) over the last five seasons.
Big FAVORITES or those teams sporting seven points or more have been very successful in the Mountain Valley Conference recently, 16-0 straight up and
10-6 against the spread (62.5%) since 2002.
Ever since the Mountain Valley Conference Tournament games began having totals on every match in 2005, the UNDER the total has conquered at a 30-15 (66.7%) rate.
The Expected Results
At the top half of the group, Northern Iowa goes up against Bradley in the semi-finals. The Bradley Braves and the Panthers have a game each, covering each time. Missouri State shocks the Shockers in the quarterfinals and drops to Illinois State who controls their offense, setting up a 1 vs. 3 finale with a big show.
Illinois State should provide some very strong competition and play even or close most of the way, but Northern Iowa’s expert veterans can take control in the last few minutes and seal the deal, to give them two Arch Madness trophies in a row. It shouldn’t be a giant thriller. The total is projected in the low 120’s. The championship game is on CBS Sunday afternoon.
