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Higher Seeds- Good Bet or Bad Bet?

March 19, 2010 – 4:18 pm

In the last section of the first round games, five teams with seeds of five or higher are in play. Only five years back, the higher seeds were usually seen as ‘play against’ wagers. Oddsmakers were expected to load the points on the chalk, in order to interest the sports betting public into investing on heavy favorites. But in recent years, bettors have gotten smarter, taking the points with over-rated underdogs and they profited from many matches. Youwager.com has always attempted to post a more accurate number on the higher seeds, but this does make it more challenging sometimes to pick a winner. So what are sports bettors talking about for tonight? Stay tuned…

Number 1, Duke against Number 16, Arkansas Pine Bluff

Duke may be the top seed in the South, but they are far from being the most flamboyant team coach Mike Krzyzewski has ever had. In some circles, the Blue Devils are being talked about though, as a possibility for the championship match. Sports bettors have been paying attention, and they have been betting the Blue Devils in significant numbers as a 23-point favorite at YouWager.com. Why?

Duke simply looked better and better as the season progressed. Krzyzewski seemed to know just how to work Jon Scheyer, Kyle Singler, Nolan Smith and, eventually, Lance Thomas. Once the Hall of Fame coach discovered a way to put Thomas in efficient situations for offense, the Plumlee brothers became very effective and helped make the team a force to be reckoned with near the basket. If Brian Zoubek, a senior, can keep increasing his average -10.1 boards in the last 10 games- there’s no reason Duke that can’t bump up to 6-2 against the spread when they are favored by 13 points or more since December 15.

While most sports bettors know that Arkansas Pine-Bluff lost their first 11 matches of the season. All of these were away from home, and they were up against some really tough teams. But to give them credit where credit is due, these Gold Lions have rallied to win 18 of their last 22. Arkansas Pine-Bluff isn’t going to take Duke down, but they could possibly cover the spot if they can manage to continue their +6 rebound margin.

Number 1, Syracuse against Number 16, Vermont

A 17-point choice, the Orangemen will need to start hard and play fast to get some of their confidence back after they lost on their last two trips to hardwood city. Syracuse needs to crank up Wesley Johnson, start pounding the ball inside on the court and open up those shooting lanes. Going back 13 years, the Orange are 7-0 against the spread coming off two or more consecutive losses as a favorite. Vermont is not expected to be an easy win. They can usually keep opponents down to a 39.7 percent shooting ratio. The Catamounts have had time to study and understand the Syracuse 2-3 zone. They’ll need first rate effort from Marqus Blakely, a two-time America East Player of the Year, Maurice Joseph and Evan Fjeld. Even though Vermont hasn’t been on radar for a lot of the big hot wagers, they are 8-0 against the spread after playing a game as favorite.

Number 2, Ohio State against Number 15 UC-Santa Barbara

Jim Rome calls UC-Santa Barbara “the most dangerous 15th seed ever,” but sports bettor should know that Rome attended this school. The Gauchos will now be tested and forced to prove just how good they really are when they play Ohio State, one of the top starting five’s in the tournament. For starters, Ohio has Evan Turner, and that’s a good a place to start. Take a look at the numbers for the Buckeyes: this team is 21-4 and 17-10-1 against the spread with Turner, and 0-6 against the spread without him. When Turner is on the boards, his team mates simply get better shots, and Ohio State is 26-2 and 17-11-1 against the spread when they connect on a higher shooting percentage than an opposing team. The magic number for the Buckeyes appears to be 70, as they are 20-1 and 15-5-1 against the spread when they attain that hurdle. As a 17.5-point favorite at YouWager.com, with total of 132.5, suggests a 71-52 final score.

UC-Santa Barbara is expected to fight back, but they are 10-25 against the spread against solid shooting teams that make 48 percent or more of their shots.

Number 4, Maryland against Number 13, Houston

Maryland will have a huge advantage when they go up against Houston. The Terps have been playing hard 20 minutes of full effort basketball ever since March 6th, when they lost in the second half of the ACC quarterfinals to Georgia Tech. Back then, the Terrapins looked like turtles, moving slowly against the Yellow Jackets and they deserved to lose. It was a good lesson for the team.

To make their first NCAA entrance in 18 years, Houston has had to play four games in four days. Now, the Cougars will have to stay red hot to win their fifth match in a row. They burned up UTEP in the C-USA championship game with 12 treys, and it was the 13th time this season they drilled 10 or more deep tosses. Coach Tom Penders’ team is 20-6 ATS away from home after a game with eight or less turnovers.

While Maryland needs to shake off their last match, after taking down seven opponents in a row, this Gary Williams team is a 9.5-point favorite at YouWager.com and they are 8-3 against the spread in their previous 11 games. The infamous Terps defense can eat up the best of offensive squads and keep them to 38.8 percent. Maryland is 7-1 against the spread against good ball handling teams that commit 14 or fewer turnovers in the second half of this season.

Number 5, Michigan State against Number 12, New Mexico State

At YouWager.com, the Spartans are a favorite by 13.5 points against New Mexico State and will they probably cover this easily if they listen to their coach and play the kind of ball that took them all the way to the national championship game a season ago. Yes, Michigan State doesn’t seem to have a strong center, but that may not be a factor for the Aggies. New Mexico isn’t known for its defense. They typically give up 77.8 points every game, score 78.6 points per game, and permit opponents to rack up 46.7 percent shooting when they are on the road. The Spartans are 21-8 against the spread on the road, usually scoring 75 to 80 points.

If the Spartans continue with artless ball handling, with 14 turnovers a game, Michigan could have an interesting match here. The Aggies are not considered to be a mid-major, and they are not known for holding on to the ball and limiting possessions to slow down a strong opposing team. An athletic team, they like to run. Guard Jahmar Young is an All-WAC star with 20.5 points per game. His racing pal is Jonathan Gibson and these two combine for an average of 38 points per match. New Mexico State likes it fast and they are 8-1 against the spread after two or more Under’s. Michigan is 0-7 against the spread as a neutral court favorite of 12.5 to 15 points.

By Joe Pienso | Posted in basketball, college, news, online wagering, sports, sportsbook, tips | Comments (0)

The Line Moves Early on Friday

March 19, 2010 – 2:37 pm

The sports betting public has had some more time to take a look and take apart the numbers for Friday, and already there are some very interesting opportunities with Friday’s games. Here’s an interpretation of some of the line moves at YouWager.com.

One of the items that sports bettors were passionate about early on is the Texas A&M and Utah State total. The match opened at 129.5, yet it has dropped down to 125. Why? The explanation may not be easy to understand at first glance.  Texas A&M usually averages a little more than 133 total points per game and 129.6 points on the road. Utah State is consistently more than 136 total points in all of their matches, and they are rated higher away from home at precisely 139 points.

Sports bettors would tend to think that the speed of the game could be slower for a tourney match, and the Aggies from Logan, UT are 14-5 UNDER after permitting 30 points or less in the first half in two straight games. Texas A&M is 11-3 UNDER away from home after one or more consecutive losses. Both teams have good strong defensive squads, so it will be interesting to see what happens.

Purdue vs. Siena will be the first match in Spokane, is expected to move in one major way. Sports bettors have been talking all week about the Boilermakers and their big defeat from Minnesota in the Big Ten tournament. Now they will go head-to-head against Siena’s veterans. The club took down higher-seeded teams in the last two NCAA tournaments. At YouWager.com, Purdue began as a five-point favorite and has since dropped to four points.

Even before Robbie Hummel got hurt, Purdue was not considered a safe bet.  Purdue is 2-11 against the spread, having won eight or more of their last 10 games this season. Siena seems to be sharper than they appeared to be in the MAAC champion match. In that game the team was forced to triumph over shortcomings to beat Fairfield 72-65 and survive, as a nine-point favorite. The Saints are 10-2 against the spread after failing to cover the spread.

For this 4 vs. 13 match, the total has dropped 1.5-points to 130 so this one appears less decisive. Could Siena stage an upset? If so, the number drop would make sense. The Saints are 11-4 UNDER, having won 12 or more of their last 15 games. But the Boilermakers are 14-4 OVER away from home, after failing to cover four or five of their last six against the spread.

Some sports bettors have never heard of Oakland U. They are, in fact, the Summit League champions. Did you know they hail from Rochester, MI? These Golden Grizzlies are actually veterans, and the team sports two seniors and three juniors in their starting lineup. This is their second NCAA appearance in three years. The team averages 76.8 points per game and the matches they’ve been in with numbers by oddsmakers are 10-4 OVER. So why is the total going down in their match with third-seeded Pittsburgh?

There are three factors to consider here. Oakland U. has faced four schools in this tournament, and they have averaged only 54.5 points a game. Pitt’s Panthers typically keep opponents to 40 percent shooting, and ‘neutral’ court squads coming off an upset win against a conference rival as an underdog such as Oakland, in a match involving two teams with win percentages of 60 to 80 percent, are 46-19 UNDER.

Cornell is a good candidate for a Cinderella story in March. Their bad luck is drawing is drawing Temple, one of the best schools in the tournament. The Owls have soared with 10 wins in a row, and they are 8-2 against the spread, being the A-10 champions for the three years straight. However, this doesn’t mean the Big Red won’t have a shot to pull a big upset here. The lines are favoring the school from Ithaca, NY. It seems that no one has any confusion about the differences between the Ivy League and the Atlantic 10 this year. But make no mistake- this isn’t your father’s Cornell. The team shoots well at 48.1 percent, and sinks three-pointers at 43.4 percent. They even have a solid 7’0 center with Jeff Foote.

Temple has earned the praise and attention from sports bettors, but it’s always good to take a closer look. Against common opposing teams this year, Cornell is 5-3 straight up and against the spread, with +2.9 scoring margin. Looking at the stats for the Owls, versus the same foes, they are 7-2, with a 4-5 against the spread mark and a score differential of +5.9. The sports betting public could be on to something here, in going with the underdog in the match.

Clemson and Missouri appear to be two sides of the same coin. Both are known to be hard pressing teams that enjoy forcing turnovers and disrupting foes into making lots of mistakes on the court. Missouri still has veteran players from last year’s Elite 8 team. They typically force 10.9 steals and 20 turnovers per match, and lead the country in both of these categories. Clemson’s Tigers are currently ninth in the nation at steals with 9.6 per game and they convert on seven shots from beyond the arc. Missouri has no fear of going for the three-pointers, too, and typically make eight every match.

The total started at 138 and is up 1.5-points right now at YouWager.com. Because both clubs are known to force turnovers, this usually leads to points. Each team has been up against a pressing defense in practice all season and each could know how to pounce after they break the press, and carry the ball to the basket. Missouri is 10-1 OVER in their last 11 NCAA games and Clemson is 24-10 OVER after two or more consecutive Under’s.

By Joe Pienso | Posted in basketball, college, news, online wagering, sports, sportsbook, tips | Comments (0)

Learn to analyze the Flop

March 18, 2010 – 7:04 pm

One of the most important skills that you can learn as a novice or beginner poker player is to analyze The Flop. You need to learn to study the flop carefully in order to make the best decisions that in turn will reap you the most benefits. Pay close attention to the following tips in order to improve your flop analyzing skills:

Flops that complete straights.

Be very careful when playing flops that look like they might have completed a straight for an opponent. Look for flops that looks like this for example: A 2 3, 10 J Q, 7 8 9, 4 6 7. Always be weary of flops of this nature that can get you in a big trouble. Players sitting on AK for example would have flopped a straight if 10 J Q drops. A player playing 10J would have flopped a straight with 7 8 9.

Flops that complete Flushes.

Whenever you see 2 diamonds or 3 diamonds on the flop for example be aware that players could be chasing a flush or that they have flopped a flush. These flops should be played with caution. If you think that a player is chasing a flush with the flop showing 2 diamonds for example protect your hand by betting strong and not giving away free cards on the turn or the river. Respect any re-raises and fold if you do not think that you have the best hand especially if a third diamond drops for example.

Flops that show pairs.

One of the most common mistakes that novice players make is not respecting a pair on the board. For example if the flop comes 8 8 K be very careful since somebody could be playing an A 8 suited and now they are sitting on a set of 8’s with an A kicker. AK in this example will be easily defeated by A 8 suited(a pair of Aces against a set of 8’s). Remember that pairs on the flop make hands such as quads and full houses possible. Play these hands with extreme caution in order maximize your earning and reduce your losses.

Flops ideal for Straight Draws or Flush Draws

Always be careful for flops that give your opponents a chance at a straight or a flush draw. If you see flops like 5 7 9 be careful of players that are playing 8 10 of diamonds for example looking for a 6 or a J to complete their straight. You have to analyze these flops carefully and try to decipher if your opponent is on a draw. Now in this same example if the 5 and 7 on the flop are diamonds you could be looking at an opponent that also needs a diamond for a flush. You need to be very cautious in situations like these when your opponent has 17 outs to make his flush or straight (four 6’s, four J’s and 9 diamonds).

Flops with high cards or face cards.

Always respect flops that show a high card or several face cards. If a player that you are know very well likes to raise with AK and the flop comes A, K 2. You better think twice about calling his re-raise on the flop because for sure he is sitting with big slick that just gave him 2 pair. Also remember that flops such as A, Q, J are very dangerous for a player sitting on AK for example since somebody with 10,K just flopped a straight. You can make the case that a 10 would give AK a straight however be very careful of re-raises with flops of this nature.

So as advised work on your flop analyzing skills and always pay close attention to your opponents. Remember focus on improving your game on a daily basis. These simple strategies will improve your game dramatically.

Best of luck at the tables,

Kind regards,

Max Sullivan

By Max Sullivan | Posted in casino, online wagering, poker, tips | Comments (0)

Oddsmakers can predict the score for some opening matches

March 18, 2010 – 6:53 pm

One professional gambler’s method for wagering on college basketball couldn’t be simpler. He watches the games and then breaks down the line by the way that the oddsmakers have set up the line and total. Here, for example, is what he believes the lines managers are expecting for the first eight matches in the NCAA Tournament. The first set of numbers comes from YouWager.com.

Villanova -18, 147.5                – Projected score Villanova 83-65

Richmond -2, 134.5                – Projected score Richmond 68-66

Baylor -10.5, 150                        – Projected score Baylor 80-70

Notre Dame -2.5, 121.5             – Projected score Notre Dame 62-59

BYU -4.5, 146.5                         – Projected score BYU 75-71

Kansas State -16, 148.5             – Projected score Kansas State 82-66

Vanderbilt -3, 141                         – Projected score Vanderbilt 72-69

Butler -2.5, 130.5                         – Projected score Butler 66-64

If our friend the gambler thinks this is what the odds tell us about the expected results, how will this represent what actually happens? We asked him to explain with an example:

“Villanova is automatically favored by 12 points because of the conference difference between the Big East and the Northeast.” He added that the Wildcats guards are 10 points better than those from Robert Morris, but the Colonials defense is superior, which adds two points in their favor. Robert Morris was beaten by Big East teams Syracuse (with 40) and Pittsburgh (with 24) but they played better later on with a 5-2 mark compared to Villanova’s 2-5 stumble. He explained that Robert Morris would be a better play with the points if they did a better job on protecting the ball per possession.

In the South Region matchup, our friend spots value in Richmond over St. Mary’s. “The conference difference is worth three points in Richmond’s favor, which is the difference in the game.” He tells us that St. Mary’s lacks the speed to hold back the Spiders point guard Kevin Anderson, and he also likes David Gonzalvez, and this gives them a three-point advantage against St. Mary’s in the backcourt. Omar Samhan and Ben Allen are taller than anyone Richmond can put up against them, so gives the Gaels an edge. But because of the way that l the Spiders are able to defend in help defense, the difference here is minimized to a smaller amount. Our friend expects Richmond to win and cover.

He sees an opportunity here with Sam Houston State, with the points over Baylor. He calls Sam Houston State “your classic upset specialist. They average nine 3’s a game and convert at high rate, for 37.8 percent. They average 80 points a game (79.9) and have a +5 rebound margin. Double digit points worthwhile.” When asked about Baylor’s excellent numbers on offense and defense and their talent? He responded with, “The Big Eight is 10 points better than the Southland. I believe this is accurate, so why are the Bears only favored by almost the same number?” This, he calls a high risk, high reward bet.

He feels The Notre Dame and Old Dominion side is correct, but he prefers the total on this one. “People are watching Notre Dame thinking this is a Big East game, and it isn’t. ODU can force the tempo and the Irish didn’t forget how to play faster if needed. The Monarchs don’t shoot well, but they really pound the glass and will get several put backs. With the total coming down, there’s great value in the game in the low 130’s.”

The Kansas State and BYU’s matchups are “spot on” according to this bettor, and he believes there are opportunities in the other two afternoon matches.

“I’m playing Murray State three ways, with the points, first half and on the money line. Oddsmakers posted a number on Murray State and nobody but the sharps seemed to notice. My impression is that most bettors have made smaller wagers

here, hoping the public will back SEC team late, and this will be a more attractive wager closer to game time. Think about it,” he says. “SEC against Ohio Valley, three points, are you kidding?”

Last on our friend’s list are Butler and UTEP. ‘I’ve watched both of these teams play at least eight times and at different points in the season. Butler might be a ‘smarter’ team, but that Georgetown loss in New York told a story. If Derrick Caracter gets Matt Howard in foul trouble early in the game, who can Butler turn to? Caracter could just have his way with them, and UTEP really creates problems with their complete defense, not just press, at 39 percent. If an exhausted Miners team had beaten Houston, at worst they should have been a ninth seed. As much as I enjoy watching Butler, UTEP with the points is play.”

That’s the word from a pro.

By Joe Pienso | Posted in basketball, college, news, online wagering, sports, sportsbook | Comments (0)

NCAA Excitement on Opening Night

March 18, 2010 – 4:59 pm

The top seeds, Kansas and Kentucky, are not expected to be tested in their first matches and number three seeds, Georgetown and New Mexico are likely to progress and play on Saturday. As for the other four matches, These are the games where upsets are very possible. Be sure to get all of the latest info at the YouWager.com LIVE ODDS page.

How Safe are the Six Seeds?

Both Marquette and Tennessee are seen as favorites, but everything could change under the right conditions. The Golden Eagles, at 22-11, and 17-10 against the spread, have won six of their last eight matches. But they seem to have problems with clubs that play at a fast pace. In three recent games, the relatively short squad at Marquette gave up 50 percent or more in defensive field goal percentage to Seton Hall, Villanova and Georgetown.

On a roll, at 7-0, and 6-1 against the spread, Washington enters as the Pac-10 postseason champions. The Huskies are averaging 79.8 points per game and like to run a rapid offensive game. Washington is 24-9, and 14-18 against the spread, and they have covered four of their last five NCAA tournament games. As number eleven seeds, they average over 73 points a game and look to be good candidates for first round upsets. Washington is posted at 1.5-points at YouWager.com with a total of 143, but it’s important to remember that Marquette is 7-0 against the spread when the total is 140 to 149.5 this season.

Before the SEC semi-final match, Tennessee, at 25-8, and 13-17 against the spread, had five wins in a row and seven out of eight and they were looking hot. Then the Vols suffered a horrible defeat with Kentucky by 29-points. Tennessee has covered their last four games coming off a spread loss, but they are just

3-7-1 against the spread when it comes to Big Dance tournament matches. Tennessee seems to perform a lot better from the lead, because they shoot only 31.3 percent from three-point territory.

San Diego State, at 25-8, and 18-13 against the spread, does not have a lot height, but they are quite effective on the offense, and this is reflected in their   +7 rebound margin. The Aztecs play excellent defense Like Tennessee. They rate 40.5 vs. 39.4 for the Volunteers, and they convert on 47.7 percent of their shot attempts. In a MWC title match, San Diego State stopped UNLV at home and kept them to 45 points on 32.7 percent accuracy. They are 22-9 against the spread after a win by 10 points or more over the last two seasons.

At YouWager.com, Tennessee is a 3.5-point favorite. Tennessee has only three covers in the last 10 times they were the preferred team.

Which is it- 8 vs. 9 or 9 vs. 8?

During the last 11 tournaments, the lower seed team traditionally has maintained a slight advantage with a 23-21 straight up mark and a 23-19-2 against the spread record. This could give Northern Iowa, at 28-4, and 21-10 against the spread, a slight margin theoretically, and they are one-point underdogs dogs to UNLV.

The Panthers seem to be a balanced club and could go 10 deep. Without being in a rush offensively, Northern Iowa has at center, Jordan Eglseder, and with forward Adam Koch, a guy like Ali Farokhmanesh to rack up the points. UNI also hold up a team with defense, and keep them to 54.3 points per game, for 40.3 percent. They are also ready to work hard for the entire shot clock if they have to. This team is 8-2 against the spread after a win by 15 points or more this season.

At 25-8, and 19-12 against the spread, UNLV’s six game winning streak was broken at the MWC finals. The Rebels have a first rate backcourt that features Tre’Von Willis and Oscar Bellfield. But they do not have a starter more than 6’8” to face the big guys at Northern Iowa. UNLV is 15-4 against the spread when the line is +3 to -3 with coach Lon Kruger for the last three seasons. The last shot could possibly win this contest.

The other number 8 vs. number 9 match seems to about survival. Wake Forest, at 19-10, and 15-11 against the spread, has floundered with five losses out of six. Al-Farouq Amino is thought to be the biggest offensive threat here, and the Demon Deacons are known to consistently work the basket, but many sports bettors feel that they don’t score consistently from the guard position. Wake is Forest is only 1-10 against the spread in earlier NCAA tournament games.

Texas, at 24-9, and 11-18 against the spread dropped like the real estate market when they fell from number one in the nation to become an eighth seed during the season. As the year progressed, it became very clear to the sports betting public that the club did not have the kind of chemistry it needed. A lack of focus and poor point guard play made things worse. At YouWager.com, Texas remains a five-point favorite. They are 3-11 against the spread against schools that outscore their opponents by four or more points per game, after 15 or more matched have been played this season. StatFox calls this one a coin toss.

By Joe Pienso | Posted in basketball, college, news, online wagering, sports, sportsbook, tips | Comments (0)

Florida Face-Off for Orlando at Miami

March 18, 2010 – 4:21 pm

The Magic are riding high with Vince Carter’s solid playing these days. If Orlando can raise the standards for Rashard Lewis and see him play with this kind of ability, the club’s enthusiasm level will go through the roof. Lewis is aiming to develop his game and improve what has mostly been a dismal month for him, this Thursday as the Magic shoot for a 10th win in 11 matches in Miami. As a road team, Orlando is currently a 2-point favorite at YouWager.com. However, the Heat are hoping for a big upset here.

Carter, at 42.5 percent, and Lewis, at 42.9, has not been shooting particularly well this season. At 48-21, and 35-30-4 against the spread, fortunately Orlando has more talent on the team to make up for problems or disappointments with these two players. But shaping these guys up could be a factor when playoff time rolls around. It looks like Carter is getting with the program. Averaging 19.0 points on 54.6 percent shooting over his last 10 games, the former Rookie of the Year and the Magic have gone 9-1 and 7-3 against the spread.

Lewis is another story. Something is wrong. He was averaging 4.0 points during Orlando’s earlier three matches before San Antonio came to town on Wednesday. Coach Stan Van Gundy remarked that the former All-Star player seemed to lack energy. As the Magic head for Miami they are 9-9 against the spread away from home after a non-conference game over the last two seasons.

Because this match on Thursday will be the last encounter for these two teams for the regular season, this could also be a playoff preview for the Magic and the Heat. Orlando is the number two seed in the East and Miami is presently number seven.

At 35-33, and 34-34 against the spread, the Heat did win their first two games of the season in this series, while Lewis fought to score nine points in each game and shoot 25.0 percent. Lewis did improve his performance against Miami on February 28th at home. Lewis shot 22 points and led Orlando to a 96-80 victory.

Dwyane Wade was able to average 23.3 points with 39.3 percent shooting against Orlando, and now his playing has intensified in March to aid Miami’s efforts to enter the playoffs again. They were in ninth place after the loss to the Magic on February 28, but the Miami Heat went on to win six of eight, with 30.3 points per match coming from Dwyane Wade. The night before the Magic beat the Spurs, Miami wasn’t able to pull off a win against San Antonio. On that Tuesday, Wade had 28 points but his fellow players only 36.5 percent to result in an 88-76 loss. Including this defeat, the Miami Heat are 5-1 against the spread in their last six games at home.

At YouWager.com, Orlando is a two-point favorite. The Magic are 24-11 against the spread when the line is +3 to -3 since last season. The Miami has had some problems with teams with the use an offensive format similar to the Magic’s and Miami is 18-36 against the spread against teams that try for 18 or more three-point shots a game in the second half of the season.

The total is only 188.5. This is the lowest in three years, from back in March when oddsmakers posted 186. The game could possibly go either way as Orlando is 14-4 UNDER after scoring 110 points or more, and Miami is 12-3 OVER in March for home games over the last two seasons.

Both of these clubs have not fared well typically on Thursday nights. The Magic are 1-4 against the spread and the Miami Heat are 5-13 against the spread. The StatFox Power Line predicts Orlando by 4. The game is 8PM on TNT.

By Joe Pienso | Posted in basketball, news, online wagering, sports, sportsbook, tips | Comments (0)

Florida Derby: Short-priced Horses Dominate Lately

March 18, 2010 – 3:33 pm

Favorites in the Florida Derby have dominated in the 21st Century. Eight winners have returned less than $7 on the front end, including five top choices.

During the previous decade only one favorite made the Gulfstream Park winner’s circle: High Fly, which paid $2.80.

In the past 10 renewals, there have been only two double-digit payoffs, both in fields of 10: Friends Lake in ’04 returned  $76.80 and Hal’s Hope in ’00 paid $15.80.

One of three favorites during that time span also captured the Kentucky Derby in ’01, Monarchos, who defeated a dozen others in the South Florida track’s showcase race.

Likely favorite in the 59th Florida Derby will be Rule, who won the San F. Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs for his fourth consecutive victory. John Velasquez, who was aboard the winning Quality Road last year, retains the mount.

Trainer Todd Pletcher will redirect Eskendereya to the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct on April 3, but most likely will still saddle the favorite since Rule is the morning line 5-2 choice.

Eskendereya destroyed the 64th Fountain of Youth field by 8 ½ lengths, tying the largest margin of victory by Spectacular Bid in ’79. The son of Bold Bidder later won the Florida Derby by 4 ½ lengths tying the lowest payoff posted by Honest Pleasure in ’76: $2.10

Spectacular Bid won the Kentucky Derby while Honest Pleasure finished second to Bold Forbes at Churchill Downs.

Rule, the son of Roman Ruler, will break from post 7 against 10 challengers, headed by Radiohead, the early second choice at 3-1 who drew the outside post.

Radiohead defeated last year’s Champagne Stakes winner Homeboykris by 3 ¼ lengths in an allowance contest at a mile on Feb. 27. He scored in the Norfolk Stakes last June across the Atlantic at the Royal Ascot.

Soaring Empire, 20-1, who drew the rail, will try to come close to his sire’s performance in ’03 when Empire Maker posted the largest margin of victory – 9 ¼ lengths.

Lentenor, 6-1, a full brother to ’06 winner Barbaro breaking from post 2, makes his debut on dirt after a maiden score on turf. Ice Box, 15-1, exits post 8 hoping to improve on dad Pulpit’s second-place finish in ’97.

The last time 11 horses ran was when Barbaro triumphed by a half-length over Sharp Humor and went on to score at Louisville.

In ’08, Big Brown defeated Smooth Air by five lengths en route to victory in the Run for the Roses.

The largest field the past two decades was 14 in ’94 when Holy Bull won by 5 ¾ lengths. That field was four horses less than the record established in the’53 inaugural when Sky Ship edged Handsome Teddy by a head.

By the way, Pletcher’s only victory in the Florida Derby was in ’07 when Scat Daddy triumphed by 1 ¼ lengths with Edgar Prado aboard. Prado will guide Radiohead.

By Greg Melikov | Posted in news, online wagering, racebook, tips | Comments (0)

Hawkman’s Report!

March 18, 2010 – 3:30 pm

Hello sports fans, the hawkman has left the ndst and flying high. Its about time for tipoff and the quest for the national to begin. It will be a brutal but magical journey for some and a quick disappointing exit for others.
Looking at the brackets i think you will find upsets along the way. I think with all the key injuries Purdue is a prime team to be upset.
So for all the wagering fanatics out there, look at the money lines with your sportsbook and take advantage of the underdogs early. In closing I believe the dogs will bark early but a power house takes homethe trophy. Duke has the easiest road but i think Syracuse Orangemen take home the prize! Good luck to all and the hawkman is flying on.

By YouWager | Posted in YouWager Blogger, basketball, college, news, online wagering, sports, sportsbook | Comments (0)

NHL News: Calgary Wants a Win Against Division Rival

March 17, 2010 – 6:22 pm

Why are the Calgary Flames not in the running for the playoffs in the Western Conference? Many sports bettors say their last two games are the reason. Some also look at their showing this year against the Colorado Avalanche. Now the Avalanche have a chance to go to 5-0-0 versus their Northwest Division rivals, and add a fourth win in a row overall when the Flames come to the Pepsi Center on Wednesday night. At YouWager.com, Colorado is a -115 favorite. Four wins in a row earlier in the month really boosted Calgary, at 34-26-9, and 34-35 straight up, and lifted them to eighth place in the West. But the fire seemed to die out and the Flames this postseason rank slipped away from them after making only two goals in back-to-back defeats. Sunday’s 3-1 loss to Northwest Division-leading Vancouver at home wasn’t as important for Calgary as their 2-1 defeat at home to Detroit. Detroit has now jumped three points ahead of Calgary in the rankings. Calgary is 37-23 in road games after scoring two goals or less in three straight games. The Flames’ offense, rated to be one of the poorest in the NHL at 28th, with 2.48 goals per game, has not been helped from its power play, which is 0 for 13 in the last four games. Calgary did attempt a fast four-minute power play when they were tied with the Red Wings during the third period, but they only managed two shots.

In their last two meetings, Colorado kept hotshot Jarome Iginla from making a point and the Avalanche increased their winning stretch with Calgary to six games. Only in their 2-1 shootout loss in the recent match on January 11th did Colorado manage to score against Colorado this season. Craig Anderson of the Avalanche accomplished 44 saves and prevented two of three attempts in a tiebreaker to rise to 4-0-0 with a 1.96 goals-against average against Calgary this season.

At 40-23-6, and 40-29 straight up, the Avalanche ended last in the West last season, yet they are currently in fifth place after their third win in a row, a 5-3 victory at St. Louis on Tuesday. They are 13-6 after a win by two or more goals this season. Colorado has run up 24 goals in their last five matches, and they’ve employed an offensive outburst that greatly supports backup goaltender Peter Budaj. Anderson, their regular, should be back at the net on Wednesday. Before Tuesday, he had started 23 straight games. The Avalanche are 10-4 after scoring three goals or more in three consecutive games.

Over on the Calgary bench, Miikka Kiprusoff is 0-4-1 with a 3.00 goals-against average in his last five starts against Colorado, after winning seven of his previous nine in the series.

At YouWager.com, Colorado is a -115 money line favorite with a total of 5.5 and a puck line at  (-1.5) +230. Colorado is 7-2 against defensive teams allowing 2.55 or less goals a game this season and they are 13-4 UNDER at home after a three-game unbeaten streak over the last two years. Calgary is desperate to get their act together fast, and this is the kind of match to do that, but Colorado is    4-12 revenging consecutive losses to an opponent as a favorite and they are 2-6 in their last eight visits to Mile High City. The StatFox Line predicts Colorado -138, which could indicate that oddsmakers might be accounting for the home factor and recent stats for this series. Calgary is 17-5 UNDER after three or more consecutive Under’s this season. The Northwest Division match starts at 9:05 E Eastern on TSN and ALT.

By Joe Pienso | Posted in hockey, news, online wagering, sports, sportsbook | Comments (0)

NBA News: St. Patrick’s Day Odds Could Help Boston

March 17, 2010 – 5:38 pm

St. Patrick’s Day, This year, the Atlantic Division match features New York and Boston, two cities with thousands of passionate Irish-Americans, and plenty of sympathizers. And both the Celtics and the Knicks will want to make their fans proud when they go head-to-head in Boston. At YouWager.com, the Celtics are a 9-point favorite in Bean town.

New York will be shooting for three wins in a row -and covers- for the first time since the first week of January in 2010. This is the last stop for the Knicks who are on a five game trip on the road. They just stopped Dallas’ 13-game winning stretch with 128-94, and then they followed that up with some trouble for Philadelphia with a 94-84 win. In both matches they played as underdogs.

The Celtics have been about as stable as, well, dare we say it, a drunken Irishman in their last three matches. Recently at home, the Celtics Boston beat Indiana by 19 points and Detroit by 26, shooting 58.4 percent and, an even better 62.2 percent in the latter. In between these two games they confronted a major foe, Cleveland, to lose 104-90. They converted only 40 percent of their attempted shots in that match.

At YouWager.com, the Celtics are a nine-point favorite with a total of 208. A super new system also calculates that Boston might be the right play. The system says Play Against underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points off a win by 10 points or more over a division rival, against opponent off a home blowout win by 20 points or more. The system is 27-7 against the spread, 79.4 percent the last 14 seasons, and this is the first time it has appeared all year. New York might be off in consecutive covers, but they are 10-19 against the spread this season when they are in this spot. Boston has done well in recent visits from the Knickerbockers, winning six in a row, 4-1-1 against the spread.

By Joe Pienso | Posted in basketball, news, online wagering, sports, sportsbook, tips | Comments (0)